論文

査読有り
2014年

Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

SCIENTIFIC WORLD JOURNAL
  • Shangkun Deng
  • ,
  • Takashi Mitsubuchi
  • ,
  • Akito Sakurai

2014
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1155/2014/861641
出版者・発行元
HINDAWI PUBLISHING CORPORATION

Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/861641
Web of Science
https://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=JSTA_CEL&SrcApp=J_Gate_JST&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=WOS:000333929300001&DestApp=WOS_CPL
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1155/2014/861641
  • ISSN : 1537-744X
  • Web of Science ID : WOS:000333929300001

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